When is Jack Smith’s birthday? Someone should give him a copy of the Justice Department’s manual with a bookmark in Section 9-85.500 “Actions that may have an impact on Election.” He and his boss, Attorney General Merrick Garland, can open their office reading group by having someone read the beginning of that passage aloud: “Federal prosecutors and agents may never select the timing of any action, including investigative steps, criminal charges, or statements, for the purpose of affecting any election or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party.”
But, of course, that is exactly what Jack Smith intended to do with his case against Donald Trump in Washington, DC. Trump was set to go on trial March 4, the day before Super Tuesday, in what is one of the most Democratic cities in the country, in a court presided over by Tanya Chutkan, an ostentatiously Trump-hostile judge. As Byron York noted, “Democrats envisioned a weekslong trial tying Trump down in a federal courtroom, followed by a guilty verdict from a deep-blue Washington, D.C., jury, followed by a long sentence imposed by Chutkan, followed by a move by Smith to imprison Trump pending appeal. Bingo! Trump would be behind bars by Labor Day, and Biden would cruise to victory.”
A few days ago, the Supreme Court wrecked this envisioned party by agreeing to hear Trump’s case that, as president on January 6, 2021, he enjoyed immunity from criminal prosecution. SCOTUS agreed to expedite the case, but no one expects them to finish before the election in November.
Of course, Trump is being besieged on many other fronts. There’s the $450 million Judge Arthur Engoron says he must pay because… because why? Oh, right, because he defrauded banks by overvaluing his assets when he made loan applications. The banks did their own arithmetic, made the loans, and were pleased that Trump paid them back on time and in full. So it was a fraud in which no one was defrauded, but Trump still must be fined into possible bankruptcy. While we’re shopping for our legal friends, someone should get Engoron a large-type version of the 8th Amendment, which is brief and to the point: “Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.”
Then there is the case of the classified documents that Trump had stashed away in Mar-a-Lago, his home in Palm Beach. Trump faces dozens of counts in that case, but it is not at all clear that prosecutors are going to be able to make any of the charges stick. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking, Trump chalks up primary after primary victory, and he keeps going up in the polls. As I write, Trump is ahead of Biden in all of the swing states, 49 to 43 in Arizona, 46 to 42 in Wisconsin, 49 to 43 in Georgia, 50 to 41 in North Carolina, 49 to 43 in Pennsylvania, 46 to 44 in Michigan, and 48 to 42 in Nevada. If the election were today, Trump would sail back into the White House.
But the election is not today; it is eight months away. This is the point at which I drag out Harold Wilson’s remark that a week is a long time in politics. The Democrats will not be sitting by idly. They have a country to ruin and power to maintain, and they are not going to let up on Trump. I once suggested that instead of harassing Trump piecemeal with specific indictments, they just charge him with everything. Take the statute book and declare him guilty of breaking every law. That’s more or less the effect of their efforts to stymie the once and possibly future president, but they could streamline their efforts if they just said he was guilty of everything.
In any event, you can be sure that the Dems are not going to rest on their laurels. If lawfare doesn’t work—and it still might—there are other expedients. If Trump remains at liberty and maintains his popularity, you can expect the Dems to throw Joe Biden under the bus. Who will replace him? I don’t have the foggiest idea, though the people who nominate the wicked witch of the mid-west, Gretchen Whitmer, are thinking along the right lines: someone rich, left-wing, and female.
Adam Smith, writing to a forlorn Brit during the Revolutionary War, observed that there is “a deal of ruin in a nation.” That is true, and my friend John O’Sullivan was right to add “especially this nation.” But there are limits to the amount of damage—or debt—a nation can endure without cracking. It would be interesting to know what Smith would say were he to cast his eye over contemporary America. I doubt he would be cheery in his assessment.
Yes, the election is still nearly nine months away, but I’m seeing a huge swing of public sentiment shifting towards Trump. Donald Trump has always had his loyal base (of which I am a part) but that was not much more than 30 to 40 percent of the Republican Party. I would say that there is another 30 percent of Trump leaners who are members disaffected by the Establishment GOP. And then there are the Establishment types----the strongest Never Trumpers.
However, since the Republican Party only commands 30 percent of all voters, Trumpers represent just a small portion of the total voting public. Independents and Democrats comprise about 65 percent of the remaining total. For Trump to win, he must convince the Never Trumpers he is the best alternative to anyone the Democrats can bring.
Independents, tired of Bidenomics, Urban crime and homelessness issues, and the border debacle, are strongly leaning towards Trump. And then there are the secretly disaffected Democrat voters. The ones who secretly walk up and whisper they are voting for Donald Trump. They are more than Black males and Hispanic voters upset with border issues and broken promises, they also include Soccer Moms upset with DEI School Boards, Gen Z’ers upset that Democrat policies that have made earning a decent living a mere memory, and moderate Urban Democrats simply tired of the filth and the crime.
Most of the disaffected will not be bought off over Abortion issues and student loan debt buy-offs, they see a larger pattern of big issue problems that cause single issue demands to pale in comparison. They are also beginning to see Trump’s legal problems as lawfare election interference----which it most definitely is. And the numerous slapdowns Smith has received in recent days, the exposed corruption of Fani Willis, and the over the top multi-million dollar fines by an activist judge as being a targeted assault against a single individual for political purposes. When rampant crime in the streets, rough sleeping everywhere, illegal aliens fed, housed, and clothed at taxpayer expense, the inability to simply ride the subway in safety, and lastly the pernicious revolving door of cashless bail, they have had enough. They see the law as being totally misdirected against one man while there is a callous disregard for the rule of law in every other direction.
The NYT/Seina Poll shows Trump at +5 and more than 10 percent of voters who voted for Biden in 2020 now say they are voting for Trump in 2024. If 2020 was the hate Trump election, it sure looks like 2024 will be the hate Biden election. And happily, Joe has brought all of this upon himself.
In microcosm, one might look at the upcoming California Senate primary. Three Left Wing candidates—Lee, Porter, and Schiff—look to lose to a Republican former professional baseball player. If that doesn’t represent a significant sentiment swing in collectivist, politically correct California, I don’t know what does. It is one thing for California voters to select a Republican governor (Arnold Schwarzenegger) for better fiscal policy, but it as a whole other thing to select someone that will affect national policy at the Senate level that repudiates the Sacramento/San Francisco axis that has dominated California for decades.
It is unusual for me to do two originating posts, but I found something this morning that is tangential to Roger’s article. I found it on MSNBC and will link the article below.
In essence, the authors, one a former Watergate prosecutor, explore the possible means of getting the President’s State of the Union message out to Z’ers who do not get their news from traditional print and media sources.
While Roger tackled the re-election issue from a lawfare angle, there is also the social/political problem Biden has in that NO ONE can name any of his accomplishments. The authors propose that Biden use multi-media mini-presentations from White House staff, Cabinet Members, and other political players to get his message across. The authors acknowledge the shorter attention span of younger voters and say the mini-presentations would enhance overall messaging in order to better capture their minds. Maybe.
I think this alternative proposal is also an acknowledgement they doubt Biden can hold up for a speech that usually last a bit over an hour. I sure do. As for the model, they point to the presentations by the Democrat led January 6th Committee. I will let the authors speak for themselves:
In making their pitch, they cite “. . . though the Constitution requires the president to “from time to time give to the Congress information of the State of the Union,” there are no requirements for its delivery.”
And to further both their case and format, they continue:
I always looked at the movie Ideocracy as satire. I’m now beginning to believe it is a blueprint.
Adam Smith, writing to a forlorn Brit during the Revolutionary War, observed that there is “a great deal of ruin in a nation.” That is true, and my friend John O’Sullivan was right to add “especially this nation.”
Depending on the source, there are anywhere from as little as 8 million illegal aliens in this country, and up to 12 million since Biden took office. And those that are here are reproducing while more are entering everyday.
Added to this cheery fact is that–and I read this just yesterday–every 100 days, $1 trillion dollars in interest is added to the federal debt. That simply unsustainable.
Trump is not a god, Hercules or a superhero. And while he was able to achieve some laudable accomplishments in his first term, should lightning strike twice and Trump reclaims the White House, he will face a viscerally defiant and unified left, an economy that is teetering on collapse, the presence of tens of millions of illegal aliens who the left will NOT allow to be deported, and a congress and senate that are sitting on a hair trigger to impeach him.
For those who believe we’re in the midst of the Fourth Turning, I sure will be glad when we get through it. This crisis mode sucks.
I agree on your assessment of what will be faced if Trump wins. I’ve written similar observations. The Left has had even more time to construct roadblocks that will make 2016-2020 pale in comparison. I would think, though, once a populist movement begins to gain new adherents----especially from those who were once on the opposite side, we may see a more united front against the entrenched bureaucratic elite.
EB, I still contend that only a relatively brief period of quite stern authoritarian rule (Pinochet is my favorites example), followed by a return to democratic rule through a period of incremental steps will save us.
Of course, the other, far more painful path is a complete collapse of society and the economy, followed by a period of intense hardship and misery. To wit:
Hard Times Create Strong Men,
Strong Men Create Good Times,
Good Times Create Weak Men,
Weak Men Create Hard Times